71 Odds of At Least 45 Seats for Republicans

You Are Here: Home > Articles > Economy > 71% Odds of At Least +45 Seats for Republicans The chart above is from this website and summarizes the current Intrade betting odds for various gains in House seats for Republicans.  Intrade contracts which are trading above 50% odds are shaded dark red, and contracts below 50% are a lighter shade.  As of today, there is 71% chance that the Republicans will gain at least 45 seats.  The same website is showing a net gain of 8 Senate seats for the Republicans (AZ, CO, IL, IN, ND, PA, WI and WV).

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GMI and GMIR back to maximum levels; RWB stock: TRS

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Tuesday was the 21st day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend. The T2108 is back to 86%. Another RWB rocket stock near an all time high: TRS. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

by Dr. Wish (Wishing Wealth)

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iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund

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SPDR Lehman 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
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ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ETF

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Grain Market Analysis from Jim Wyckoff

GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 19 1/2 cents
at $4.91 today. Prices closed near the session high today
and have now seen a strong rebound from Monday's low. The
key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for corn
today as the U.S. dollar index was solidly lower, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were solidly higher.
There were rumors in the market today of potential
Russian demand for U.S. corn. Traders are gearing up for
Friday's USDA crop production report, which traders
reckon will be bullish for corn. Today's price action was
very important, as some near-term chart damage was
repaired. It does now suggest that Monday's low could be
the seasonal "harvest low" in corn. Key will be how the
corn market closes on Friday. A close near the weekly
high on Friday would suggest Monday's low was just a
"reaction low" in the overall price uptrend. A close near
the weekly low on Friday would hint that a near-term
market top is in place in the corn market. Corn bulls'
next upside price objective is to push and close prices
above major psychological resistance at $5.00 a bushel.
The next downside price objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at this week's low of $4.54 1/4. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today's high of $4.93 1/2 and
then at $5.00. First support is seen at $4.86 and then at
$4.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

November soybeans closed up 17 3/4 cents at $10.71 3/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw bargain-hunting buying interest following recent
losses. The key "outside markets" were in a bullish
posture for soybeans today as the U.S. dollar index was
solidly lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes
were solidly higher. Some fresh demand for U.S. soybeans
from China also helped boost the bean market today. A
three-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
psychological resistance at $11.00 a bushel. The next
downside price objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this
week's low of $10.42. First resistance for November
soybeans is seen at today's high of $10.77 3/4 and then
at $10.88. First support is seen at $10.60 and then at
today's low of $10.49 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December soybean meal closed up $7.00 at $299.30 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more
short covering and some fresh bargain-hunting buying
interest. Some of the recent near-term chart damage was
repaired today. However, the bulls have more work to do
in the near term. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at this week's low of $286.60. First
resistance comes in at today's high of $301.00 and then
at $305.00. First support is seen at $295.00 and then at
today's low of $291.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December bean oil closed up 37 points at 43.82 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did score a
mildly bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart.
The key "outside markets" were in a bullish posture for
bean oil today as the U.S. dollar index was solidly
lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
solidly higher. Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price objective for
the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week's high of 45.45
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 42.50 cents. First resistance is
seen at today's high of 44.07 cents and then at 44.25
cents. First support is seen at the August high of 43.39
cents and then at 43.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 16 1/4 cents at
$6.63 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session high
today and saw short covering in a bear market. The key
"outside markets" were in a bullish posture for wheat
today as the U.S. dollar index was solidly lower, while
crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were solidly higher.
The wheat bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push
and close Chicago SRW prices above solid resistance at
$7.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the
wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.25. First resistance is
seen at today's high of $6.67 3/4 and then at $6.75.
First support lies at $6.50 and then at this week's low
of $6.43 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 18 cents at $7.01
today. Prices closed near the session high today on short
covering. The bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.25. The bears' next downside objective
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at today's
high of $7.04 1/2 and then at $7.08. First support is
seen at today's low of $6.90 and then at this week's low
of $6.82. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December oats closed up 15 1/4 cents at $3.52 3/4 today.
Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh
two-week high close. Oats bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside
momentum today. Bears' next downside price objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at last week's low of $3.25. Bulls' next upside price
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of $3.68 1/2.
First support lies at $3.50 and then at $3.45. First
resistance is seen at today's high of $3.54 1/2 and then
at $3.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

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CNBC Interview: Yen, Dollar and New Opportunities

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Was on CNBC with Maria Bartiromo talking about the Yen, the dollar and the opportunities that lie ahead.

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Limit Move Bonus

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-> visit TradeTheMarkets.com

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Its Not Just CEOs, the Top Pay for MLB Players, Oprah, Criss Angel, Cesar Millan is Out of Control

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The CNBC discussion above focuses on the question of whether CEO pay is "out of control."  LA Times business writer Michael Hiltizk say Yes, and in a recent LA Times article he cited this Harvard Magazine article that reports that the "Ratio of Average CEO Pay to Average Worker Pay" has increased from 107:1 in 1990 to 344:1 in 2007. 
Big deal. The ratio of the median salary of the top 25 highest-paid Major League Baseball (MLB) players to the median U.S. household income has increased steadily from 70:1 in 1990 to an estimated 374:1 for 2010, an all-time historic high (see chart below).  
The chart above was calculated using the USA Today Salaries Database, and shows the ratio of the median salary of the top 25 highest-paid MLB players in each year (i.e. the player who ranked #13 in the MLB by salary) to the median U.S. household income for each year. In 1990, Andre Dawson was paid $2.1 million by the Chicago Cubs (#13 highest paid in the MLB) and that was 70 times the median household income in that year of $29,943.  By 2010, Manny Ramirez (13th highest-paid player this year) is making $18,695,000 for the LA Dodgers, and that's 370 times the estimated median household income this year of $50,500. 
In the same way that there are only a few hundred athletes in a given year who are talented enough to make it into the elite group of world-class athletes who earn multi-million dollar salaries, there is likewise only a small group of individuals with the necessary skills and talents to lead large corporations (average CEO pay in 2009 was $9.2 million for the S&P 500 companies).  
And in the same way that the top athletes can command higher salaries each year because of increased fan interest in sports (domestically and globally) and increased competition for those top positions (domestically and globally), CEOs can command higher salaries because of increased global competition and bigger markets, and bigger companies.  Just like the highest-paid athletes deserve to make more today than their counterparts in the past, the CEOs of Ford, Caterpillar, Johnson & Johnson, and McDonald's deserve to make more than their counterparts of the past.  The markets today for cars, machinery, consumer products and fast food are not only much bigger today than in the past, both domestically and globally, they're much more competitive and challenging and the CEOs who can face those challenges deserve to make a lot of money.  
We rarely hear anybody say that the pay of athletes, musicians, movie stars, entertainers is "out of control," and yet many of those celebrities (Oprah, Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, Criss Angel, Cesar Millan aka The Dog Whisperer, etc.) ARE CEOs, of their own multi-million dollar enterprises.  And as Reason's Katherine Mangu-Ward pointed out in the video, the CEOs don't write those checks to themselves, so we should realistically assume that market forces play a large role in determining CEO compensation, just like we should assume that Alex Rodriguez's $33 million salary this year is determined largely by market forces. 

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