Wednesday, October 6-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index, which is a basket of six
major world currencies weighted against the
greenback, has been trending lower for weeks, with
that downtrend gaining momentum in late September
when the Federal Reserve hinted it would initiate
another round of "quantitative easing" of U.S.
monetary policy. If and when that QE does occur,
which many feel will be in November, then I would
not be surprised to see the U.S. dollar index
actually rally and possibly put in at least a near-
term low, on a "buy the rumor, sell the fact"
scenario. Actually, in this case it would be sell
the rumor, buy the fact.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high
of 1,160.00 and then at 1,170.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at 1,150.00 and
then at 1,140.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the Tuesday's high of 2,025.00 and then
at the September high of 2,032.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,010.00 and then at
2,000.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,850 and then more stops just below
support at 10,800. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Tuesday's high of
10,905 and then at 10,950. Shorter-term moving
averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are still bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Tuesday's high of 134 18/32 and then at 135 even.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 133 16/32 and then at 133 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds
135 19/32--lifetime high
135 4/32--Previous Month's high
135 4/32--second pivot point resistance
134 18/32--previous day's high
134 11/32--first pivot point resistance
133 26/32--pivot point
133 21/32--4-day moving average
133 19/32--previous day's close
133 12/32--9-day moving average
133 8/32--previous day's low
133 1/32--first pivot point support
132 16/32--second pivot point support
132 5/32--18-day moving average
129 5/32--previous month's low
127 12/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral to bullish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
contract high of 127.00.0 and then at 127.08.0.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 126.19.5 and
then at 126.14.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 7.0
DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes
127 --second pivot point resistance
126 27/32--first pivot point resistance
126 26/32--previous day's high
126 21/32--previous day's close
126 20/32--pivot point
126 17/32--lifetime high
126 15/32--previous month's high
126 15/32--first pivot point support
126 14/32--previous day's low
126 10/32--4-day moving average
126 8/32--second pivot point support
126 2/32--9-day moving average
125 7/32--18-day moving average
122 16/32--previous month's low
122 9/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index slightly higher in
early trading today, on a tepid short-covering
bounce in a bear market. Bears still have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Prices hit another
fresh 8.5-month low overnight. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bullish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 78.00 and then at 78.25. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 77.77 and
then at 77.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on some
profit-taking pressure from recent gains. The bulls
still have some upside technical momentum. In
November crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at Tuesday's high of $82.99 and
then at $83.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $82.00 and then at $81.50.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to weaker in overnight trading.
Very good harvest progress in the U.S. Corn Belt
recently and a big open window of clear harvest
weather in the forecast are still a negative for
corn and soybeans. That is being offset by strong
worldwide demand for U.S. grain. Traders are
awaiting Friday morning's USDA monthly crop
production report. That report is expected to be
bullish for corn. I look for corn to continue to be
the price leader of the grain markets in the near
term.
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