Tuesday, October 5-Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Did you happen to catch the CNBC interview with Jim
Rogers Monday afternoon? He's the diminutive, bow-
tied market watcher with a big following. Rogers is
still very bullish commodities in the coming years.
He is staying out of the stock market at present,
and will stay out for some time, because he says
another economic downturn is coming in a year or
two. He said the price of gold will be over
$2,000.00 an ounce in the next few years. I would
not want to bet against Rogers. He's been pretty
much right in his predictions on markets the past
few years.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages
are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in Monday's high of
1,143.90 and then at last week's high of 1,153.50.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,133.00 and then
at Monday's low of 1,127.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the Monday's high of
1,997.75 and then at 2,015.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
1,975.50 and then at Monday's low of 1,961.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below
support at 10,700 and then more stops just below
support at Monday's low of 10,649. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 10,750
and then at Monday's high of 10,790. Shorter-term
moving averages are still bullish early today, as
the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving
average. Shorter-term oscillators are bearish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are still bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134 18/32 and then at 135 even.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 134 even and
then at the overnight low of 133 28/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
DECEMBER U.S. T-Bonds
135 19/32--lifetime high
135 4/32--Previous Month's high
134 23/32--second pivot point resistance
134 10/32--previous day's high
134 10/32--first pivot point resistance
133 28/32--pivot point
133 28/32--previous day's close
133 21/32--4-day moving average
133 15/32--previous day's low
133 15/32--first pivot point support
133 9/32--9-day moving average
133 1/32--second pivot point support
131 31/32--18-day moving average
129 5/32--previous month's low
127 7/32--100-day moving average
112 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators
are neutral to bullish
early today. Buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight
contract high of 126.26.0 and then at 127.00.0.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Sell stop orders are likely located just
below support at the overnight low of 126.14.0 and
then at 126.00.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 6.0
DECEMBER U.S. T-Notes
126 24/32--second pivot point resistance
126 18/32--first pivot point resistance
126 17/32--lifetime high
126 17/32--previous day's high
126 15/32--previous month's high
126 13/32--previous day's close
126 12/32--pivot point
126 6/32--first pivot point support
126 6/32--4-day moving average
126 5/32--previous day's low
126 --second pivot point support
125 30/32--9-day moving average
125 2/32--18-day moving average
122 16/32--previous month's low
122 6/32--100-day moving average
111 9/32--lifetime low
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early
trading today. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Prices hit a fresh 8.5-month
low overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are neutral early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 78.50
and then at the overnight high of 78.90. Shorter-
term support is seen at the overnight low of 78.17
and then at 78.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. The bulls
still have upside technical momentum. In November
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at this week's high of $82.38 and then
at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $81.15 and then at
Monday's low of $80.77. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a
corrective bounce from recent selling pressure and
as the key "outside markets" are in a bullish
posture for the grains this morning. The U.S.
dollar index is weaker, while crude oil and the
U.S. stock indexes are higher. Very good harvest
progress in the U.S. Corn Belt recently is still a
negative for corn and soybeans. Traders are
awaiting Friday morning's USDA monthly crop
production report.
